THE SPORTS ADVISORS
(9) Louisville (14-3, 10-7 ATS) at (8) Syracuse (17-3, 8-8 ATS)
Syracuse faces its fourth consecutive ranked Big East opponent when it entertains No. 9 Louisville at the Carrier Dome.
The Orange started the Big East season with three straight wins (2-1 ATS) against non-ranked foes, part of a seven-game overall winning streak. However, with the competition stiffening, Jim Boeheim’s squad has struggled a bit, losing road games to 13th-ranked Georgetown (88-74 on Jan. 14) and top-ranked Pitt (78-60 on Monday). Sandwiched in the middle was last Saturday’s impressive 93-74 rout of No. 12 Notre Dame as a 3½-point home chalk
Louisville followed up last Saturday’s 61-60 home win over No. 1 Pitt with Wednesday’s 78-59 rout of Rutgers, covering as an 11-point road chalk. The Cardinals have won six in a row and they’ve cashed in all five Big East games to date. Rick Pitino’s club is averaging 73.2 points per game on just 44 percent shooting in league play, but it is holding league opponents to just 62.4 ppg on 38.3 percent shooting.
The host is 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 ATS in this rivalry dating to 1998. In last year’s lone clash, Louisville cruised to a 61-50 victory, barely cashing as a 9½-point home favorite.
While the Cardinals have won and covered all three of their Big East road games, Syracuse is 12-1 on its home floor (4-5 ATS in lined games), winning by an average of 15 ppg (83-68) and outshooting its visitors by a margin of 51.4 percent to 37.9 percent.
In addition to its five-game ATS winning streak, Louisville is on pointspread tears of 20-6-1 on the road, 37-15-2 in Big East action and 8-2 on Sunday. Syracuse is 5-1 ATS in its last six after a non-cover and 5-2 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning record.
The Orange are on over streaks of 4-1 overall (all in Big East play), 4-1 at home and 6-2 after an outright loss, and Louisville has topped the total in four of its last six outings, including two of three on the road. Finally, the over is 3-1 in the last four meetings in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: LOUISVILLE and OVER
(7) Michigan State (15-3, 7-7-1 ATS) at Ohio State (13-4, 7-6 ATS)
Michigan State returns to the court for the first time since Wednesday’s shocking home loss to Northwestern when it pays a visit to Value City Arena for a Big Ten clash with Ohio State.
The Spartans saw their 28-game home winning streak and an 11-game overall winning run end in a 70-63 loss to Northwestern as a hefty 12-point chalk. Michigan State, which has been held to 63 points in each of its last two games (both at home), shot just 40.4 percent from the field, including missing 16 of 21 three-point tries, and it lost despite an overwhelming 39-19 rebounding edge.
Ohio State has been idle since Tuesday’s 67-49 loss at Illinois as a 7½-point road underdog, halting a three-game SU and two-game ATS winning streak. The 49-point output was the Buckeyes’ second-lowest of the season, one point more than they scored in a 76-48 home loss to West Virginia on Dec. 27.
Michigan State is 5-1 (2-3-1 ATS) in Big Ten play, including 3-0 (2-0-1 ATS) on the road. The Buckeyes are 3-3 SU and ATS in league action, including 2-0 (1-1 ATS) at Value City Arena. Overall, the Spartans are 7-1 on the highway (4-2-1 ATS), including 4-0 in true road games, while Ohio State is 10-1 at home (3-4 ATS).
These teams met back on Jan. 6 in East Lansing, Mich., and the Spartans prevailed 67-58, but Ohio State scored a layup in the final seconds to get the cash as an 11-point underdog. The Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, all as an underdog. In fact, the pup has cashed in six of the last eight in this series. In last year’s battle in Columbus, Ohio State won 63-54 as a two-point favorite to end Michigan State’s 5-0 ATS winning streak at Value City Arena.
Michigan State is on pointspread runs of 5-1-1 on the road, 6-0 after an outright loss and 6-2 after a non-cover. Ohio State has cashed in nine of its last 13 home contests, but otherwise is in ATS ruts of 1-4 on Sunday and 2-5 against winning teams.
The under is on streaks of 4-1 for the Spartans after a non-cover, 4-1 for the Spartans against winning teams, 4-1 for Ohio State overall, 12-4 for Ohio State after an outright loss, 19-7 for Ohio State on Sunday and 4-1 in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
(4) Pitt (17-1, 7-5-1 ATS) at West Virginia (14-4, 6-9 ATS)
West Virginia puts its three-game winning streak on the line when it welcomes fourth-ranked Pitt to Morgantown, W.Va., for a key Big East battle.
Kicking off a five-game stretch in which they will play four Big East foes ranked in the Top 12, the Mountaineers scored an impressive 72-58 victory at Georgetown on Thursday, cashing as a five-point underdog to halt an 0-4 ATS slide. Da’Sean Butler (27 points, eight rebounds) led four West Virginia players in double digits as the team hit 48.4 percent from the field and held the Hoyas to 39.2 percent, including a 2-for-16 effort from three-point range.
Pitt rebounded from its first defeat of the season – last Saturday’s 69-63 loss at Louisville as a two-point underdog – with Monday’s 78-60 destruction of Syracuse, easily covering as a nine-point home choice. Sam Young (game-high 22 points) and DeJuan Blair (20 points, game-high 12 rebounds) led the way for the Panthers, who are averaging 75.7 ppg in Big East play while allowing just 64 ppg.
West Virginia is 4-2 SU but just 2-4 ATS in Big East action, including 2-1 SU (0-3 ATS) in Morgantown. The Mountaineers are 8-1 overall on the home floor, but only 2-4 ATS in lined action. Pitt is 5-1 (3-3 ATS) in conference, going 2-1 (1-2 ATS) as a visitor.
The Mountaineers ended a four-game losing streak to Pitt last March, winning 76-62 as a 5½-point home favorite. In the first meeting last year, the Panthers eked out a 55-54 win but failed to cover as a three-point home underdog. Despite not getting the cash in the last two battles, Pitt is still on an 11-5-1 ATS run in this rivalry, going 6-3 ATS in its last nine trips to Morgantown. Also, the favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven head-to-head matchups.
The Panthers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games and 4-1 ATS in their last five Sunday affairs. West Virginia has failed to cash in four of its last five overall and five of its last six at home, but Bob Huggins’ team is on a solid 17-4 ATS roll when playing on Sunday.
The under is on runs of 4-1 for Pitt on the road, 4-1 for West Virginia on Sunday and 5-2 in this rivalry. However, the over is 9-3 in the Panthers’ last 12 Sunday games and 12-4 in their last 16 versus Big East foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITT
NBA
Dallas (25-18, 19-24 ATS) at Boston (36-9, 25-20 ATS)
The Celtics will try to make it eight in a row when they welcome the Mavericks to TD Banknorth Garden in Boston.
Dallas is fresh off Friday’s dominating 121-91 victory in Detroit as a 3½-point ‘dog. The Mavs have won three of four both SU and ATS, and they’ve have taken two of three on this road swing through the Eastern Conference, beating the Sixers and Pistons with a loss to the Bucks (133-99 as one-point favorites) sandwiched in between.
Boston made it seven in a row (6-1 ATS) on Thursday with a 90-80 win in Orlando, cashing as a 4½-point underdog. The Celtics have found their defense lately, limiting the opposition to 87 points or less in each of their last five while averaging 103 points and 50.8 percent shooting from the field.
The Celtics swept the season-series from the Mavericks last year, getting a 96-90 home win as one-point ‘dogs and then going to Dallas and winning 94-90 as 3 ½-point pups. The Mavs had won seven straight (4-3 ATS) in the series prior to last season and the road team has cashed in five of the last seven.
Dallas has failed to cash in five of their last six after a spread-cover and four of their last five after a straight-up win, but they are on ATS runs of 9-2 as a road ‘dog and 7-3 on the road against a team with a winning home record. Boston is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven against Western Conference teams, but otherwise on a plethora of ATS runs that include 20-8 on Sundays, 11-3 as a home favorite, 7-2 when getting two days of rest and 16-5 at home against teams with a winning road mark.
For the Mavs, the under is on runs of 22-7-1 on Sundays, 13-6 on a day of rest, 6-1 against teams with a winning record and 4-1 against the Atlantic Division, but they have topped the total in 18 of their last 26 as a ‘dog. Boston is on “over” streaks of 6-2 at home, 4-1-1 after two days off and 5-2 against teams with a winning record, but they have stayed under the number in four straight and 11 of 13 against Western Conference foes. In this series, the over has been the play in five of the last seven overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER
San Antonio (29-13, 19-22-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (34-8, 20-22 ATS)
Just 11 days after playing one of the better games this NBA season, the Spurs and Lakers will tangle again, this time inside the Staples Center in Los Angeles.
Back on Jan. 14, San Antonio scored a 112-111 victory over the Lakers, but failed to cash as three-point chalk. It was the first time these two had met since their Western Conference finals series back in May when the Lakers scored a 4-1 series win (3-2 ATS). The home team has won nine of 10 (6-4 ATS) including the playoff series, but the Lakers have gotten the cash in three straight and five of the last seven.
The Spurs are riding a four-game winning streak (2-2 ATS) and escaped with a 94-91 home win over the Nets on Friday, falling well short as 11½-point favorites. They’ve won three of four on the road (2-2 ATS) but barely edged the Bobcats 86-84 on their last road outing and failed as a five-point chalk.
Los Angeles has won three straight (2-1 ATS) and easily beat the Wizards 117-97 inside the Staples Center Thursday, cashing as a 14-point favorite. The Lakers are 22-3 in front of the home fans but just 12-13 ATS. They have topped the 100-point mark in 13 straight games and have limited the opposition to 97 or less in each of the last three.
San Antonio is 6-1 ATS in its last seven against Pacific Division teams but just 2-5 ATS in its last seven overall and 1-4 ATS in its last five after a straight-up win. The Lakers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 against the Southwest Division and 7-3 their last 10 against teams with a winning record, but they are on ATS slides of 7-16 as a favorite and 2-6 when getting two days off.
The Spurs are on a host of “under” streaks, including 23-8-1 as a ‘dog, 40-19-1 on the road, 18-8 after a day of rest, 12-3 against the Pacific Division, 4-0 overall and 23-10-2 after a straight-up win. Los Angeles is just the opposite, topping the total in 17 of 24 at home, six of eight overall, seven straight after a straight-up win, four of five against the Western Conference and seven of 10 on Sundays. In this rivalry, the under is 5-1 in the last six and 5-1 in the last six in Hollywood.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
Utah (25-19, 22-22 ATS) at Denver (28-15, 24-18-1 ATS)
The Jazz go to the Pepsi Center in Denver looking for their fifth straight win over the Nuggets in this Western Conference rivalry.
Utah suffered a 102-97 home loss Saturday night to the Cavaliers, falling as a three-point favorite to LeBron and Co. The Jazz have lost four of their last six and gone just 1-6 ATS in their last seven overall. They are just 8-14 away from home this season (10-12 ATS) and average just 98.6 points per game on the highway while allowing 101.8.
Denver hasn’t been on the court since Tuesday when it scored a 118-99 home win over Sacramento, cashing as a nine-point chalk. The Nuggets have gotten the cash in three of their last four overall and six of their last nine. They are 17-6 at home (13-9-1 ATS) but when they play on three-plus days of rest they are just 1-3 ATS this season.
Utah has won the last four meetings in this series, including a 98-94 home win back on Oct. 29, but the Nuggets took home the cash in that one as eight-point ‘dogs. Last time these two squared off in Denver was almost a year ago and Utah got a 118-115 win in overtime as a two-point pup. The Jazz are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 4-1 ATS in the last five in the Mile High City. And finally, the favorite is 20-9-1 the last 30 times these two have met.
The Jazz are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 against teams with a winning record, but otherwise they are on ATS dives of 1-4 on the road, 1-4 against the Western Conference, 1-6 overall and 2-5 when playing the second night of a back-to-back. Denver is on ATS streaks of 4-1 against the Western Conference, 4-1 on Sundays and 17-4-1 as a home favorite of five to 10 ½ points.
Utah is on “over” runs of 16-5 against Western Conference teams, 11-2 overall, 11-1-1 as a road ‘dog and 5-0 when playing the second night of a back-to-back. For the Nuggets, they have stayed under the total in four of their last five at home, but they are on “over” streaks of 10-4 overall, 39-19 against Northwest Division squads and 5-2 when playing after three or more days off. In this rivalry, the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings and 5-1 in the last six in Denver.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
